Life Expectancy and Procastination

Overview

Lung cancer is one of the deadliest forms of cancer, with 86 percent of sufferers dying within five years, according to Cancer Monthly. However, the specific life expectancy depends upon what type of lung cancer a patient has, how advanced the cancer is, his overall health and how aggressively the disease is treated. These factors can triple and even quadruple the overall survival rates.

Types of Lung Cancer

According to the numbers presented by Cancer Monthly, life expectancy is closely related to the particular type of lung cancer. I have non-small squamous cell carinoma which accounts for roughly 30% of non-small cell lung cancers in the United States.

Staging

Lung cancer is not easy to find early. Usually the physician will suspect it if the patient, especially a smoker, has a persistent or worsening cough, shortness of breath, blood sputum, or other respiratory changes. The first test in attempting to pinpoint the problem will be a chest X-ray or scan done for other reasons, such as before surgery.

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), or even new techniques, such as PET-CT scanners, may yield even more valuable information. The PET scan will show “hot-spots” in your lung, bones or brain tissue. However, the only sure way to diagnose a tumor is to take a biopsy After the biopsy, the sample of the tumor will be examined under a microscope by a pathologist, who will identify the cells and determine whether the tumor is benign or malignant. My pathologist is a family friend and someone whom I respect and have gone on an extended motorcycle trip. It seemed a little unfair to have Dr. Willis Thorne be the bearer of bad news but most of us take news better from those who care about us and are best able to provide comfort.

Life Expectancy

Just like other cancers, lung cancer is staged according to the size of the tumor, nodal involvement and whether there are distant metastases. Predictably, five-year survival rates decrease as the staging increases. For example, Cancer Monthly reports five-year survival rates of 60 to 80 percent if the tumor is less than 3cm and there are no metastases to lymph nodes or distant issues. This rate plummets to less than 5 percent if there are distant metastases or if the tumor has invaded the mediastinum where the heart, great vessels, trachea and esophagus are located. My particular brand of cancer has metastasized to the brain and to the bone area. That's why we are engaged in a three week period of brain radiation to be followed by targeted chemo therapy. Studies have found that combining radiation and chemo therapy result in exceptionally high mortality rates, so we are waiting until mid November to start the chemo therapy. In the meanwhile, little is being done to control the growth of the cancer in my lungs and bones.

New Drug

Originally approved to treat non-small cell cancers, Tarceva, or erlotinib, was approved by the FDA in 2010 to treat all lung cancers. The FDA said Tarceva extends the median survival by two to three months, compared with a placebo, after other treatments have failed. Originally, my understanding that this miracle drug helped by years but note the actual effects - it extends quality of life by two to three months!

Case Analysis

Question: What are the chances of survival from Lung Cancer? My mother in law has just found out she has lung cancer and a tumor in her lung. She will be getting surgery to remove the tumor tomorrow. What are the chances of everything being okay? Will she have to take radiation or chemotherapy afterward? I would like to get input from anyone that has gone through this experience. She is very scared and was a smoker for 22 years. Any information is more than welcome.

Answer: I'm very sorry. Lung cancer has one of the lowest survival rates. That doesn't mean there's no hope, but you have to be realistic. Forecasting the Course of Disease: Lung Cancer Prognosis Overall, fewer than 10% of people with primary lung cancer are alive 5 years after diagnosis.

But 5-year survival rates may be as high as 35 to 40% among patients who undergo surgical resection for cancer that has not spread beyond the lung. General estimates of stage-specific median survival time the point at which 50% of patients are still living are as follows:

Stage 1a - more than 60 months (> 5 years)

Stage 1b - about 36 months (3 years)

Stage 2a - about 24 months (2 years)

Stage 2b - about 20 months (< 2 years)

Stage 3a - about 15 months (< 1.5 years)

Stage 3b - about 12 months (1 year)

Stage 4 - about 8 months (< 1 year)

Summary

It is not healthy to dwell on “worst case” statistics and having posting these statistics I promise to ignore them in the future. On the other hand, it serves little purpose to not be informed and realistic.

A realistic view motivates the diseased to put his affairs in order to insure a continuum of family and business relations. For example, for years I recognized the need to better control my emotions – specifically anger. I decided that I would work on this issue when I reached my mid 50’s. With a more realistic time-frame, I now find that I cannot afford any additional procrastination.

Note, that there was a time when I did have a hot temper but I’ve mellowed out significantly over the years to where anger is not a chief concern. I have other problems that require more urgent and critical attention.

According to a lung cancer survival rate for Stage 4, I have a remaining life expectancy of 8 months to 1 year, adjusted up a couple of months for using Tarceva which I won’t begin using until mid November and subtracting two months of surgery and radiation treatments. Assuming the effects of this cancer became serious in July, a terminal date around my next birthday, September 5, 2011 is a reasonable estimate and one that I am emotionally comfortable with.

If you need a more scientific life expectancy estimate, may I suggest to you the site: http://deathdate.info/s/death/.

Ken Hendricks

Optimistic

· Predicted Death Date: 9 july 2033

Neutral

· Predicted Death Date: 18 december 2019

Pessimistic

· Predicted Death Date: 3 august 2005